基于模糊推理的公共交通分担率预测研究  

STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF MASS TRANSIT RIDERSHIP PREDICTIONBASE ON FUZZY INFERENCE

作　　者：裴玉龙[1] 徐大伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学

出　　处：《土木工程学报》2003年第7期22-26,共5页China Civil Engineering Journal

摘　　要：研究基于模糊推理建立公共交通分担率预测模型的方法。通过分析公共交通出行的影响因素,选择线网密度、国内生产总值、平均车速等十项指标作为影响因素,建立模糊层次结构模型。确定各因素的模糊规则,采用模糊推理预测公交分担率。并以黑龙江省某市交通数据进行预测,最后分析了影响因素与分担率水平的影响关系,应用得到了预期的效果。A prediction model of public transportation ridership using the fuzzy inference is presented in this paper. Proposing the effect factors of the public transportation travel, choosing the network density, gross domestic product(GDP)etc. as effect factors, a fuzzy hierarchy frame model is developed. The fuzzy rules of the factors are discussed and it predicts the ridership of the mass transit. The fuzzy inference method is applied to the city public transit in Heilongjiang province. At last, the paper analyzes the relations between effect factors and the ridership, acquires the correct conclusion in application.

关 键 词：模糊推理 公共交通 交通规划 分担率 模糊理论 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]