诱增交通量的变化规律和预测模型  

Induced Traffic and Forecast Model

作　　者：王晖[1] 申少君[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2003年第3期147-150,共4页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

摘　　要：路网变化将引发诱增交通量,诱增交通量不同于趋势交通量,其产生到发展中所表现出来的特征决定了诱增交通量的发展将要经历3个阶段:逐步形成、快速增长和相对稳定,而且在不同的影响区域内,诱增交通量产生的方式、增长的程度也各有不同。本文通过对诱增交通量变化规律及表现特征的分析,讨论研究诱增交通量的预测模型。Changes of road network usually induce traffic volume. Growth of induced traffic is different from that arising from general development trend. The characteristics of induced traffic shown from the very beginning to the follow-up developing period are important factors should be taken into account in traffic forecast. Three phases can be identified in the developing period, i. e. initial stage, fast growing stage and relatively stable stage. The cause and manner of the inducedic, and the growth rate may be different in different zones of the road network. This paper analyzes the patterns and characteristics of the induced traffic and discusses the forecast model for the induced traffic.

关 键 词：诱增交通量 规划 趋势交通量 路网结构 预测模型 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]