门限自回归模型在水稻需水量预测中的应用  

Application on Self-Exciting Threshold Auto-Regressive Model to forecast quantity of water irrigational requirement for rice

作　　者：张焕昭 韩军利 唐依伟 付强[3] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江农垦水利工程建设监理咨询有限公司,哈尔滨150090 [2]黑龙江农垦建三江分局水务局,富锦156300 [3]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《黑龙江水专学报》2003年第2期15-17,共3页Journal of Heilongjiang Hydraulic Engineering College

摘　　要：通过对三江平原井灌水稻各生育阶段需水量的长系列资料分析,建立了自激励门限自回归模型(SETARMODEL),采用9个参数有效地描述了水稻需水量各个生育期在多种气象及其它影响因子的作用下的周期变化的非线性复杂系统。模型拟合与预测精度较高,可在灌区规划管理与优化水稻灌溉制度中应用。Because the SETAR Model can describe the non_linearity system which have the phenomenon of limit point and annular and can depict the phenomenon of breadth and frequency depending on each other. So, through analyzing the data of well irrigation water requirement for rice in Sanjiang Plain, the writer build up SETAR Model. Using 9 parameters to describe the period vary law caused by some weather factors and other factors. Through compared with practical value, the precision is high. So the model can be used to layout and management in irrigation area. At the same time, it can be applied to optimizing the irrigation system.

关 键 词：门限自回归模型 井灌水稻 需水量 

分 类 号：S275.3[农业科学—农业水土工程]