强震危险区可拓综合预测模型在南北地震带应用研究  

Research on the application of Extenics Comprehensive Prediction Model for strong earthquake hazard areas at the North-South Seismic Belt

作　　者：汪翠枝[1] 蒋淳[1] 王建国[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市地震局,天津300201

出　　处：《华南地震》2003年第2期40-46,共7页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：十五"国家科技攻关项目(科技部2001BA601B01-05-06)资助.

摘　　要：将可拓学引进地震综合预报,通过建立强震危险区可拓方法综合预测模型,计算各类指标的关联函数,对南北地震带进行全时空、有限时空扫描的应用检验,研究孕震区地震活动图像演化特征,探索强震危险区综合预测新途径,初步研究结果说明该方法在地震强震危险区综合预测中有较好的应用前景。In this paper, we introduced extenics into the comprehensive earthquake prediction. Based on establishing Extenics Comprehensive Prediction Model for strong earthquake hazard areas, we calculate the correlation functions of all various indexes. Inspecting the application of the whole time-space and limited time-space scanning at North-South Seismic Belt, we study the evolvement characteristics of seismicty image in gestated earthquake areas and explore the new approach of comprehensive prediction for strong earthquake hazard areas. The preliminary results show that the method has preferably applied foreground for comprehensive prediction at strong earthquake hazard areas.

关 键 词：强震危险区 综合预测模型 孕震区 可拓学 物元模型 关联函数 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]