基于极值风速预测的台风数值模型评述  

Review for numerical typhoon models based on extreme wind velocity prediction

作　　者：葛耀君[1] 赵林[1] 项海帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室,上海200092

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2003年第3期31-40,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50278069)

摘　　要：在沿海台风多发地区,高耸及长大建筑结构对于极值风速作用非常敏感,因此在结构的设计、施工与使用期间有必要合理估算结构设计使用期限内可能遭遇的台风极值风速。台风极值风速的估算不仅涉及台风风场的数值模拟,也包括风速样本的采集与统计分析过程。较系统地介绍了台风风场结构的各类数学模型,并对它们在不同使用目的背景下的适用性作了评述与比较。最后,基于越界峰值法探讨了工程场地一定重现期内台风极值风速预测的可行性。In typhoon-prone coastal areas, long-span and highrise structures are susceptible to extreme wind veloci- ty, so it is necessary to assess extreme wind velocity of the typhoon possibly surffered in a given structure lifetime, i. e., 100 years. The estimation of the extreme wind speed involves not only the numerical simulation of typhoon wind field, but also the wind speed sampling and statistical analysis. Various mathematical model about wind fields of typhoon are summarized systematically, and their adaptation to different targets are also compared and remarked. Finally, based on the peak over threshold (POT) method, the feasibility of prediction of extreme typhoon wind speed in engineering fields in certain recurrance period is discussed.

关 键 词：极值风速 预测 台风 数值模型 风场 越界峰值法 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] O141.4[理学—数学]