河南省农用地集约利用与农民收入增长关系动态计量经济分析  

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Intensive Agricultural Land Utilization and Income Growth of Rural Farmers in He′nan Province

作　　者：尹春丽[1] 宋文博[2] 范慧平[2] 郭子龙[2] 王杨[2] 孟庆香[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]西安文理学院生物技术学院,西安710062 [2]河南农业大学资源环境学院,郑州450002 [3]河南省高校农业资源与环境工程技术研究中心,郑州450002

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2014年第5期185-192,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国土部中国地质调查局地质调查项目(12120113007300)

摘　　要：农用地集约利用水平关系到区域粮食安全,与促进经济发展方式转变息息相关,对农用地集约利用水平进行测度并对农用地集约利用与农民收入水平进行动态研究,可以为区域土地可持续发展提供重要参考。本研究利用河南省1978—2012年的相关数据,通过构建适合河南省农用地集约利用评价的指标体系,借助BP神经网络对河南省农用地集约利用水平进行综合测度,并在此基础上采用计量经济分析考察农用地集约利用与农民收入之间的动态联系。研究表明:1978—2012年间,河南省农用地集约利用水平整体呈现上升趋势。农民收入水平与农用地集约利用指数互为Granger因果关系,农用地集约利用指数每提高1个单位,会引起农民收入提高0.628 7个单位。脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果显示,农用地集约利用水平的提高将促进农民收入的增长,且对农民收入变化的解释能力随着时间推移逐渐增强。The levels of intensive agricultural land utilization are closely related to accelerated transformation of economic development patterns.By measuring and calculating the agricultural land use intensity,the variation and its interaction with economic growth of intensive agricultural land utilization in He′nan Province was studied.This paper,based on time-series data from 1978 to 2012of He′nan Province,constructed the index system of agricultural land use intensity,calculated the levels of intensive agricultural land utilization by using BP ANN when the index system of agricultural land use intensity of He′nan Province was constructed.On this basis,a statistical approach was adopted to analyze relationship between intensive agricultural land utilization and income growth of rural farmers in He′nan Province.The results showed that the levels of intensive agricultural land utilization in He′nan Province had been gradually increasing since 1978.By employing co-integration analysis,granger causality test can notice that the intensive agricultural land utilization and income growth of rural farmers have Granger causal relationship to each other,when the intensive agricultural land utilization levels increased by 1unit,0.628 7unit of income growth of rural framers increased.The impulse response function and variance decomposition showed that with the increase of the intensive agricultural land utilization level,the indices of farmer per capita income will promote too.Its explanation capability of the income growth of rural farmers will be enhanced over time.

关 键 词：农用地 集约利用 农民收入 BP神经网络 计量经济分析 

分 类 号：TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] F301[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程] F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]