单失效数据的可靠性统计分析  

RELIABILITY STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF DATA ONLY ONE FAILURE

作　　者：陈文华[1] 崔杰[1] 樊晓燕[1] 卢献彪[2] 相平[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学流体传动及控制国家重点实验室,杭州310027 [2]中国航天科技集团公司第九研究院八二五厂

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2003年第9期44-48,共5页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(59975081)

摘　　要：以不完全в分布B(Pi-1,1,1,b)为先验分布,提出了DOOF(单失效数据)中失效概率Pi的多层Bayes估计方法:采用加权最小二乘法估计法,给出了DOOF数据下可靠性分布参数和特征估计值的计算公式;并以航天电连接器为例,通过对加速寿命试验数据的统计分析,验证了所提方法的正确性。The main difficulty in small-sample statistical evaluation is its few failures. The problem becomes more com- plicated when DOOF(Data only one eailures) occurs. It has received little attention in the existing literature. Bayesian method is applied to derive the failure probability under DOOR The method takes beta distribution as the prior distribution. The scale parameter of beta distribution is not fixed, but follows a uniform distribution. Adopting the weighted least square estimate method, the formulas of reliability distribution parameter is obtained. Accordingly the reliability characteristic values are estimated. It is easy to apply and no complicated computation is involved in the formulas. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a DOOF problem in the following example. It is shown that the results agree with historical data. The validity of the above method in analyzing DOOF is proved.

关 键 词：单失效数据 多层BAYES估计 可靠性分析 统计分析 航天电连接器 加速寿命试验 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计] O213[理学—数学]