区域公路网路段交通量综合预测模型研究  

Study on traffic synthetic prediction model with highway segment account

作　　者：臧晓冬[1] 张树山[2] 庞静[3] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]龙建路桥股份有限公司,黑龙江哈尔滨150010 [3]黑龙江工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150050

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2003年第9期1135-1139,共5页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：黑龙江工程学院科学研究基金资助项目.

摘　　要：研究了缺乏OD资料的情况下进行综合预测的方法.利用灰色预测系统进行人口、社会经济预测,然后进行多元回归交通发生预测,再利用重力模型和FRATAR模型进行交通分布,最后采用多路径概率模型进行交通分配.结果表明:采用反推OD的方法,可减少大规模OD调查的次数,减小资料处理的难度;利用灰色系统进行人口、经济预测,可有效地处理贫信息和离乱数据,在一定的预测时段内具有良好的预测精度和实用性.Scholars in China and overseas have researched on traffic synthetic prediction for many years. Especially, structural and non-structural models for converse induction of OD have been studied. These models have difficulties with evaluation. So, the method of synthetic prediction is put forward in conditions of lacking data, predicting population and social economy on the base of grey system theory. Then traffic occurrence prediction is performed by polybasic regression model, and traffic distribution is realized on the base of gravity model and FRATAR model. At last, traffic assignment is given in the light of poly-line probability model. The method of using ascertaining models can reduce times of OD researching, and minimize the degree of difficulty of arranging data. To use grey system can transact lacking information and disordered data. The proposed method can increase the precision of traffic prediction.

关 键 词：路段交通量 综合预测 灰色预测 多元回归 重力模型 FRATAR模型 多路径概率模型 交通分配 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U491.14[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]