2002年7～9月数值预报产品广西降水预报检验  

Checking of Precipitation Forecast in Guangxi by Numerical Forecast Products during July ～ September of 2002

作　　者：郑凤琴[1] 孙崇智[1] 陈冰廉 

机构地区：[1]广西区气象台,530022 [2]广西师范信息技术系,530001

出　　处：《广西气象》2003年第3期6-7,14,共3页Journal of Guangxi Meteorology

摘　　要：应用高斯权重插值法,以站点方式对2002年后汛期(7～9月)国内外三种数值预报产品如T213全球谱模式、日本细网格模式、广州中尺度模式的降水预报能力进行检验分析。结果表明,这三种数值预报产品对分县分级降水预报均有一定的预报能力,大雨以下:24h预报广州中尺度模式效果最好,而48h效果最好的是日本预报;大雨以上:24h首推日本预报,48h预报T213全球谱模式优于其它。Forecasting capacity of three numerical forecast products in the afterflood season (July ~ Sep.) such as T213 global chart mode, Japanese thin grid mode and Guangzhou mesoscale mode are checked by Gauss Weighting Interpolation and the way of stations. The results show that the forecast of the three numerical forecast products are all effective when applied to precipitation forecast by counties and by stages, and, for 24h precipitation below downfall level, Guangzhou mesoscale mode is the most effective way, for 48h precipitation, the Japanese mode is the best, while for precipitation above downfall level, the T213 global chart mode is the best way.

关 键 词：降水预报 检验 数值预报 高斯权重插值法 2002年 后汛期 广西 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.7