灰色系统理论在农业科技人才预测中的应用  

Application of Grey System Theory in Forecasting Agricultural Technicians

作　　者：汪静[1] 王伯良[1] 

机构地区：[1]洛阳工学院工商学院,河南洛阳471003

出　　处：《洛阳工学院学报》2002年第4期5-8,共4页Journal of Luoyang Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家外国专家局引智项目 (T0 14 10 0 0 0 3 )

摘　　要：依据中国农业年鉴的历史数据 ,构建了灰色模型GM(1,2 )预测 2 0 0 2～ 2 0 0 5年我国农业科技人才需求的总量 ,对农业科技人才需求总量的发展变化进行动态关联分析 ,并对预测结果进行了残差检验、后验差检验 ,证明GM(1,2 )模型是一种行之有效的预测农业科技人才的模型。提出了实现预测目标的政策建议 ,对正确制定农业人力资源开发和管理战略。Based on the data derived from the China Agriculture Yearbook,the grey model GM(1,2) was established to forecast the total numbers of the talents requirement from 2002 to 2005. The model is used to conduct the dynamic connected analysis of the change of the whole talents numbers, and to proceed the test,analysis of the predictable results.The predicted results are extremely valuable to correctly lay down the agricultural human resourses exploitation and administrative strategy and educational development and the reform project of agriculture colleges.

关 键 词：灰色系统 农业科技 人才预测 应用 模型 需求量 精度检验 

分 类 号：S117[农业科学—农业基础科学] C961.9[经济管理—人力资源管理]