21世纪云南第1次大震活跃期的趋势预测  

The Trend Prediction for the First Active Period of Large Earthquakes in Yunnan During 21 Century

作　　者：罗葆荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台云南天文台,云南昆明650011

出　　处：《云南天文台台刊》2003年第3期69-72,共4页Publications of the Yunnan Observatoty

摘　　要：在太阳活动与地震活动相关研究的基础上指出:在周期性太阳活动的调控下,地震活动也显示出与太阳活动相关的周期性变化。云南22年的地震周期在20世纪形成了4个大震活跃期和4个相对平静期。根据地震活动和太阳活动的若干相关规律,对云南地区在本世纪第1次大震活跃期的到来作了趋势性预测:云南在本世纪第1次大震活跃期的第1个大震(M=7.0左右)将于2012年到来,那时正是太阳活动第24周下降段的开始,离上次大震活跃期的最后一个大震(丽江,M=7.0,1996年)恰好是16年。在该大震活跃期里,还将发生若干个M=7.0左右的大震和一些较小的地震,其大震爆发的时间将遵循Tx=(Tn-Tn-1)1/2(a年)的非线性经验规律发生。On the basis of the relation between the solar activity and the seismic activity,it is well known that under the modulation of the periodic solar activity,the earthquakes also show the periodic activity.Besides the 11-year cycle,the seismic activity has another cycle of 22 years which formed four seismic active periods and four quiet periods in 20 century in Yunnan.The active period of large earthquakes has occurred during the even number cycle of the solar active cycle,especially,during the descent phase of such cycles.The time interval between the last active period of the large earthquakes and the next one was about 15.9 years.During a seismic active period in Yunnan,the time interval between two large events gradually became shorter.According to the rule of earthquakes happened before,the trend prediction for the first active period of large earthquakes in 21 century in Yunnan is made in this peper as follows:(1) Because the next solar activity period,i.e.24th cycle will come at about 2006,and reach the peak at about 2010,the first active period of large earthquakes in Yunnan during 21 ceutury will occur in 2012.This is the year for the descent phase of the even number cycle of the solar activity and also the year from the last large earthquake (in Lijiang in 1996) for 16 year interval.(2) During this large seismic active period,there will be several large earthquakes (M≥7.0) and a number of small earthquakes.The time interval of large earthquakes will follow the law of Tx=(Tn-Tn-1)1/2 (year).

关 键 词：大震活跃期 趋势性预测 太阳活动 云南 地球运动 

分 类 号：P183.3[天文地球—天文学]