沈阳地区月平均降雨量的ARIMA时序建模与预测  

ARIMA time series modeling and forecasting of month-average-rainfall in Shenyang

作　　者：孔朝莉[1] 刘双[1] 杨启昌[1] 

机构地区：[1]鞍山师范学院数学系

出　　处：《鞍山师范学院学报》2003年第6期32-34,共3页Journal of Anshan Normal University

摘　　要：运用SAS系统中的ETS模块 ,根据时间序列分析的统计方法 ,对沈阳地区历年来月平均降雨量的动态数据进行了建模与预测 ,模拟了该地区月平均降雨量的动态模型ARIMA 。This article imitates the dynamical model of the month arerage rainfall in Shenyang area according to the data collected, applying the statistical method of time series analysis and using the ETS module in SAS system while dealing with the observed samplings.The obtained ARIMA model can be used to forecast the month average rainfall in Shenyang,which provides us with a scientific method to adjust the production in industry,agriculture,and the ecological environment.

关 键 词：沈阳地区 SAS系统 月平均降雨量预报 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]