四川省城市居民脑血管病主要危险因素定量评价标准的研究  

Quantitative assessment of risks on cerebral vascular diseases in urban residents in Sichuan

作　　者：应桂英[1] 李宁秀[1] 任晓晖[1] 刘丹萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院社会医学教研室

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2003年第12期1141-1145,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：四川省卫生厅科技发展基金资助项目 (9810 70 )

摘　　要：目的　制定脑血管病主要危险因素的定量评价标准。方法　通过文献检索收集脑血管病的危险因素、病例对照和队列研究资料 ,收集四川省的行为危险因素监测资料 ,运用系统评价数据库软件 (ReviewManager 4 .1.1)进行Meta分析 ,将各研究的危险因素与脑血管病的比值比 (OR)、相对危险度 (RR)进行合并 ,以合并的OR(RR)值为基础 ,运用统计模型将不同暴露水平的危险因素转换为危险分数。结果　以 5岁为一个年龄组 ,建立了 35～ 6 9岁分性别的脑血管病主要危险因素 :吸烟、被动吸烟、高血压、高血脂、体重指数、体育锻炼、饮酒、高脂饮食、喝奶、口服避孕药、糖尿病史、心脏病史和脑卒中家族史的定量评价标准 (危险分数转换表 )。无这些危险因素 (体育锻炼、喝奶除外 )者其危险分数均≤ 1.0 0 ,而有这些危险因素者其危险分数均 >1.0 0 ,且危险分数随危险程度的增加而增高。结论　脑血管病危险分数转换表是计算脑血管病存在死亡危险的基础 ,后者可预测个体在未来 10年发生脑血管病死亡的概率。Objective To set a quantitative criteria for determining the risks on cerebral vascular disease(CVD) so to identify that potential risk of an individual dying from CVD and to predict the individual risk of CVD. Methods Data on case-control and cohort studies published during 1978 to 2003 was collected through retrieval of literatures,and data on surveillance of behavior exposure was provided by Chengdu Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Pooled odds ratio ( OR ) and relative risk ( RR ) of all risk factors for CVD were estimated using software for meta-analysis to enable the varied levels of risk factors be converted into risk fractions by statistical models. Results A risk score conversion table (quantitative criteria for assessment) of main risk factors for CVD was developed for men and women aged 35-69 at an interval of five years, including smoking, passive smoking, hypertension, high blood cholesterol levels, body mass index, lack of physical activity, alcohol drinking, dietary fat consumption, milk intake, oral contraceptive use, past history of diabetes and CVD, family history of CVD etc. Individuals with all these risk factors had a risk score beyond 1.00 , but was equal to or below 1.00 when without.The risk score would increase along with the rise of one's risk level. Conclusion Estimation of risk of dying from CVD was based on risk score conversion table of risk factors for CVD, which could be used to predict individual potential risk of dying from CVD in the following 10 years. Our data provides evidence that education to be strengthened to persuade people to change their unhealthy lifestyles and behaviors.

关 键 词：四川省 城市居民 脑血管病 危险因素 定量评价标准 

分 类 号：R743[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]