山东地区地震活动水平统计预测  

STATISTICAL PREDICTION ON THE EARTHQUAKE ACTIVE LEVEL IN SHANDONG AREA

作　　者：吴延河[1] 盖殿广[1] 周翠英[1] 华爱军[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,山东济南250014

出　　处：《东北地震研究》2003年第3期11-17,共7页Seismological Research of Northeast China

摘　　要：本文以山东三个分区为例,以y=a+bx线性统计建模,进行逐年和分月地震活动水平拟合分析,给出了三个分区地震年、月应变能释放水平的经验关系,依此可以对相应区域的地震活动水平进行统计预测。使用山东地区地震资料进行内符和外推检验,结果表明这种方法不但简单,效果也较好,可以用于日常和年度及分月地震水平预测估计。Taking three subareas in Shandong as examples,the author using Y=a+bX linearity statistics to build model,conducted the fitting analysis of the level of earthquake activity yearly and mothly and gave experience relationship of three subareas earthquake strain relief yearly and monthly,according to that the statistical prediction for the level of the earthquake activity of the corresponding areas can be made.Applying the earthquake data in Shandong area to interpolation and extrapolation text,the result indicated though this appioach is simple,which may help to make predictable estimation of daily,yearly and monthly earthquake level,the errect is really good.

关 键 词：地震活动 统计预测 建模 拟合 应变能释放 内符 外推 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]