不完全信息条件下水上交通安全综合评价模型  

Water Traffic Safety Comprehensive Evaluation Model Under the Condition of Incomplete Information

作　　者：盛进路[1] 赵虎刚[1] 滕英祥[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]烟台大学海洋学院,山东烟台264003

出　　处：《人类工效学》2015年第5期42-45,56,共5页Chinese Journal of Ergonomics

摘　　要：选取5个相对数字指标作为评价指标,通过计算与最优序列关联度的方法来评价各航运企业的水上交通安全状况。根据水上交通事故数据的分布特点,采取均值法对属性决策矩阵进行规范化处理,以确保指标信息的离散程度;基于相对数字指标作为成本型指标的特点,建立最优参考序列;基于灰色距离,求出比较序列与最优序列的关联系数,采用模糊层次分析法求出指标权重,根据求解的有序加权平均(OWA,Ordered Weighted Averaging)算子大小对评价对象进行排序。实例证明,水上交通安全灰色综合评价模型计算简便,评价结果更加合理、科学。Based on five relative indicators,various shipping companies of water traffic safety situation are evaluated through their grey relational degree. According to the distribution characteristics of water traffic accident data,Averaging Method is used in normalized processing to attribute decision matrix to ensure that the degree of discreteness of index. And the optimal reference is been established due to the characteristic of cost- type indicator of Relative Indicators. After the grey correlation coefficient is calculated by the grey distance and the index weight is got by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process( FAHP),the evaluation objects are ranked by the Ordered Weighted Averaging( OWA).By the case of a shipping group subsidiaries,it is proved that the process of the grey comprehensive evaluation model is convenient and its result is more reasonable and more scientific.

关 键 词：相对数字指标 均值法 模糊层次分析法 灰色综合评价模型 水上交通安全评价 轮船 航运 海事管理 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]