降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用  

APPLICATION OF A NEW DOWNSCALING MODEL TO MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

作　　者：陈丽娟[1] 李维京[1] 张培群[1] 王锦贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2003年第6期648-655,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家"九五"攻关加强课题 96 90 8 0 6 1和 96 90 8 0 6 3;中国气象局预测减灾应用技术开发推广项目(T63月动力延伸预报解释应用技术面向省级短期气候预测业务的推广 );国家自然科学基金项目(4 0 0 3 5 0 1 0 )资助

摘　　要：着重介绍月动力延伸数值预报模拟技巧较高的大气环流在局域降水方面的降尺度(downscaling)应用。克服动力降尺度和统计降尺度技术的缺点 ,从动力与统计相结合的角度 ,给出月尺度大气环流与局地降水之间的关系 ,该联系有清楚的动力学背景和天气学意义。 1 2 0个月的历史实况资料回报试验证明了该关系的合理性。T63/NCC月动力延伸形势场集合预报进行中国降水的降尺度应用亦取得了较好的结果。A relationship between monthly mean precipitation and monthly mean circulation represented by 500hPa geo-potential height was given to combine dynamical and statistical approaches. The physical explanations of monthly mean circulation and precipitation were also presented. Statistical weights of each item of the relationship (the downscaling model) were derived from the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (500hPa) and China's observed precipitation data during the control period from January of 1951 to December of 1991. The hindcast test was conducted using those data from January of 1992 to December of 2001. The test indicates that the method (new model) has a high score skill for monthly mean precipitation forecast. Comparison of monthly forecast of precipitation amounts between the issued operational forecast and the new model using the 500 hPa height forecast obtained from T63/NCC GCM from January to June 2002 shows that the new model forecast has a higher score than the issued operational forecast result.

关 键 词：降尺度 降水预报 动力延伸数值预报模拟 月气候预测 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]