多元回归模型在坝基渗透稳定性预测中的应用  

Multi-regression Model's Application in the Seepage Stability Forecast of Dam Foundation

作　　者：王初生[1] 唐辉明[1] 杨裕云[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学土木系,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《华东地质学院学报》2003年第4期367-370,共4页Journal of East China Geological Institute

基　　金：河南省水利厅资助项目 (99- 35)。

摘　　要：在坝的失事事故中 ,渗透破坏占了 3 0～ 40 %。坝基渗流长期观测资料是病险土石坝渗透稳定性预测的主要依据。多元回归模型是定量处理观测数据的有力工具。本文根据坝基水文地质特征的差异性以及渗流场的非平面性 ,将多元回归数学模型应用于坝基渗透稳定性预测中 ,给出了在计算机上实现的计算算例。通过对陆浑水库的研究分析 ,对坝基渗透稳定现状及变化趋势的有了进一步认识 ,成功地解决了影响水库正常运行的坝基渗流问题 ,为水库投入正常高水位运行提供了详实的依据。其研究成果与其它方法结论一致 ,从而证明多元回归模型具有较强的实用性。The seepage destruction accounts for 30%～40% in dam accidents,and long seepage observation data on dam foundation are the major documents in seepage stability forecast. The Multi-Regression Model(MRM) is one of effective mathematical tools that deal with observation data. According to the otherness of hydro-geological character and its 3-D seepage flow,the author applies MRM to dam base's seepage stability forecast,also gives its arithmetic example of Luhun Reservoir. Based on MRM's application, the article not only succeeds to sum up valuable rules on Luhun Reservoir Dam foundation's seepage stability, but also gets its tendency. It gives the theoretical support of the reservoir's normal work, and proves the MRM practical.

关 键 词：坝基渗透稳定性 观测资料 多元回归模型 统计分析 陆浑水库 

分 类 号：P641.72[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]