车辆营运安全性研究  

A Study on the Safety of Vehicle Operation

作　　者：李波[1] 刘宁[1] 李光 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学,湖北武汉430063 [2]武汉安全环保研究院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《广西交通科技》2003年第2期68-70,共3页Guangxi Communication Science & Technology

基　　金：武汉市科技项目 (XJJ2 0 0 2 0 61);武汉市晨光计划资助项目 (995 0 0 40 97G)

摘　　要：基于人 机 环境系统建立了车辆营运安全事故树 ,在计算车辆事故概率时 ,针对传统事故树对不精确事件无法有效处理的问题分析 ,运用模糊概率的相关知识结合事故树来进行有效地处理 ,这无疑使车辆事故的概率计算更可靠和准确。最后将神经网络模型用来分配系统可靠性。The accident tree for the safety of vehicle operation was established on the basis of people machine environment system. In view of the fact that the analysis of traditional accident tree is not effective in tackling inaccurate cases, the relevant knowledge of fuzzy probability integrated with the accident tree will be adopted. This is no doubt that the probability calculation of vehicle accident will be more accurate and reliable. The last but not the least, the neural net models will be used to allocate the system reliability.

关 键 词：车辆营运 事故概率 事故树 安全性 模糊概率 神经网络模型 可靠性分配 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]