一η模式对“2002.10.18”四川盆地暴雨的预报及模拟试验  

Precipitaion Forecast and Numerical Experiments on "200.10.18" Rianstorm Process by Using a η Model

作　　者：何光碧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072

出　　处：《高原气象》2003年第B10期119-125,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原气象开放实验室基金课题资助

摘　　要：采用数值模拟和天气学分析方法,针对2002年10月18～20日区域性暴雨过程发生时的环流背景和主要影响系统,进行了η坐标模式降水预报的数值试验和对比分析。结果表明:η模式对此过程有较强的预报能力。在有利于降水的环流背景条件下,盆地高温和近地层冷空气活动是此次秋末暴雨形成的关键,冷暖空气交汇的强弱在很大程度上决定了降水量的大小。高空急流的存在有利于降水的加大。Adopting the methods of numerical simulation and weather analysis, and according to circulation background and main affecting system of the occurring rainstorm area on October 18 to 20, 2002, numerical experiment and contrast analysis of precipitation forecast have been done by a η coordinate model. The results show that the ηmodel has a better performance in the forecast of heavy rainstorm. Under the favorable circulation background of precipitation, the high temperature in the basin and cold air activities near the ground are the keys to the storm rainfall occurrence. The more(less) rainfall is greatly depended on the strong(weak) intensity of the converge of cold and warm air. The existent in upper air jet stream is available for the increasing in precipitation.

关 键 词：Η模式 降水预报 数值试验 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]