基于负荷空间分布预测的电网规划方法研究 (I)中长期负荷预测  

Researches on Electric Network Plannings Based on Spatial Load Forecasting:(1)Middle and Long Term Load Forecastings

作　　者：吴捷[1] 钟庆[1] 黄武忠 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640 [2]广东广电集团汕头供电分公司,广东汕头515041

出　　处：《国际电力》2003年第3期32-35,共4页

摘　　要：介绍一种新型的电网规划方法。文章分为3部分,本期刊登第1部分,具体探讨电力系统的中长期负荷预测方法。先用一种基于系统动力学建模和模糊聚类的方法进行负荷预测,之后应用传统的回归分析方法对其进行校验,最后通过优化组合的方法获得电力系统总量负荷的预测结果。这种方法既有相关分析结果,也有递推的预测结果,能减少人为因素对负荷预测的影响,获得科学的预测结果。This paper presents a novel method of electric power plannings in three parts and the first part is showed in thisissue. In this section, middle and long term load forecastings are researched. Two new methods based on system dynamicsand fuzzy clustering are used during plannings . Besides them, the linear regression is applied to check out forecastingresults. At last, the optimizing combination of all the forecasting results is the final load forecasting. By this way, bothcorrelation analysis and recursion results are included in the load forecasting. The man-made factors have little effects onthe load forecastings, so the sound results are achieved.

关 键 词：电力系统 电网规划 中长期负荷预测 负荷空间分布预测 遗传算法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]