温度三区间理论评价气候变化对作物产量影响  

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yield Based on Three-interval Temperature Theory: A Case Study of Maize in Heilongjiang Province(1960-2009)

作　　者：魏星[1] 王品[1] 张朝[1] 陈一[1] 宋骁[1] 帅嘉冰[1] 史培军[1] 陶福禄[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室/减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2015年第3期470-479,共10页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955404);教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划(B08008)

摘　　要：传统平均温度法往往无法表征极端温度事件对作物产量的作用,导致气候变化对产量影响的评估结果与实际情况存在较大偏差。鉴于此,论文提出了温度三区间理论。该理论基于作物生长发育各阶段的生物量指标以及最终产量随温度变化呈现出三区间的响应关系,分别评价正常温度、极端低温以及极端高温对产量的影响。为了验证温度三区间理论的科学性和可行性,论文以黑龙江省玉米为例,通过构建包括三区间积温指标和降水量指标的统计模型来评价气候变化对玉米单产的影响,并将此结果和平均温度法相比较,研究发现温度三区间评价法更能客观全面地评价气候变化对作物产量的影响,为这方面的研究提供了新思路。Average air temperature has been popularly and extensively used to assess the effect of temperature on crop yield. However, it would substantially remove the impacts of the extremes on the yield, consequently resulting in a potential bias on the result. Given this fact,we raised the theory of Three- interval Temperature to characterize the responses of crops to different air temperature conditions: extremely low, normal and extremely high. Heilongjiang Province is a thermal-sensitive region to current climate change and a very important production area of maize. In this study, we constructed statistical models by using the indices of Growing Degree Days(GDD) and precipitation to quantify the influence of climatic variables on maize yield in Heilongjiang Province. We also introduced three temperature indices to compare with the results based on the Three- interval Temperature Theory. The result showed that the heat injury has become a non- neglectable factor that causes the detriment of maize production in Heilongjiang Province while the chilling injury has been moderating since the 1980 s. Also, the latter method we raised, denoted as the Three- interval Temperature Theory, had a better performance in the assessment of climate change effects on maize yield, which provided new insights into related studies in other cultivation areas.

关 键 词：温度三区间 GDD 气候变化 作物产量 极端气温 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]