华北地区2级以上地震活动图像研究及预测意义  

Pattern study of M2.0 earthquake activity in North China and its indication

作　　者：王慧敏[1] 吕梅梅[1] 张永仙[1] 彭克银[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《地震》2004年第1期65-70,共6页Earthquake

基　　金：十五"国家科技攻关项目(2001BA601B01 01 04);(2001BA01 05 01)

摘　　要：对华北地区1970年以来的2级以上地震活动图像按一定标准进行全时空扫描,共扫描出115条符合标准的异常。经过与华北地区的中强震进行相关性讨论,认为华北地区出现40天以上长轴超过300km,短轴超过100km的2级地震平静;局部地区出现周围比较平静的2级地震集中区;出现持续30天以上的周围比较平静的2级地震条带、空区,可以作为华北地区发生中强以上地震的短期异常信号。Based on some given criteria, the earthquake activity patterns are obtained by special and temporal scanning in North China for M2.0 earthquakes since 1970. There are 115 items that are determined to be abnormal according to the criteria, and the relationship between the abnormal patterns and later moderate-strong earthquakes are analyzed in this paper. Results show that the following 3 conditions are the necessary ones for a future moderate-strong earthquakes in North China: ① no earthquake takes place within a period of 40 days within an ellipse area in North China with major and minor axes over 300 km and 100km respectively; ② M2.0 earthquakes are concentrated in a subarea with a quieter periphery; ③ M2.0 earthquakes take place along a belt or around a gap lasting more than 30 days. The abnormal patterns could be used as a signal to determine moderate-strong earthquakes in North China in the near future.

关 键 词：地震活动性 活动异常 图像 地震短期预测 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]