配电网概率负荷分析及其应用  

PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORK AND ITS APPLICATION

作　　者：刘健[1] 徐精求[1] 董海鹏 

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学电气工程学院,陕西省西安市710054 [2]陕西银河电力自动化股份有限公司,陕西省西安市710075

出　　处：《电网技术》2004年第6期67-70,75,共5页Power System Technology

摘　　要：文章根据配电自动化系统中馈线终端单元(FTU)采集的历史数据,预测未来各个配电区域的负荷及其概率分布。基于各个区域的负荷相互独立、负荷预测结果呈正态分布的假设,得出流过各个开关的负荷及其概率分布的预测结果。在此基础上提出了体现负荷分布概率的新的配电网安全指标,并建立了能够考虑安全运行因素的网络重构方法。实例表明通过网络优化,可以均衡配电网负荷,并且确保配电网的安全运行。According to the historical data acquired by the feeder terminal units (FTU) in distribution automation system (DAS) the load and its probabilistic distribution in each service region for the future can be forecasted. It is assumed that the load in every region is independent each other and the forecasted load is distributed in normal, thus the forecasted result related to the load passing through each circuit breaker and its probabilistic distribution can be further obtained. On this basis a new security index of distribution network, which incarnates the distribution probability of the load, is put forward and a network reconfiguration method in which the secure operation factors can be considered is established. The practical examples show that through the network optimization the load balance in distribution network can be implemented and its secure operation can be ensured.

关 键 词：配电网 负荷预测 概率 负荷分析 潮流计算 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]