基于季节性时间序列模型的空调负荷预测  

Air-conditioning Load Prediction Based on Seasonal Time Series Methods

作　　者：孙靖[1] 程大章[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学社区信息化与智能建筑研究中心,上海200092

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2004年第3期88-93,共6页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

摘　　要：基于空调负荷预测的优化控制是解决冰蓄冷控制问题的理想途径。本文在分析国际建筑物空调负荷预测竞赛研究成果的基础上指出,利用季节性时间序列模型建模预测精度较高,且工程实施简便,特别适合于空调系统连续运行、负荷波动规律性较强的建筑物负荷预测。本文概要介绍利用季节性时间序列模型进行建模预测的理论和方法,并通过工程实例验证了建模方法的有效性。The optimal controlling method based on air-conditioning load prediction is an effective way to solve the problems of ITS (Ice Thermal Storage) system. On the basis of achievements of the two international load prediction tests, time series methods are useful in predicting the hourly load of the target building due to its convenience and high prediction accuracy characteristics. Then the theory and method to establish the time series model were discussed. At last, the validity of method mentioned above was verified by a project.

关 键 词：冰蓄冷 时间序列 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TU831.2[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]