技术创新战略投资的实物期权方法综述  

Survey of real option approach to analyze strategic investments of technology innovations

作　　者：夏晖[1] 曾勇[1] 唐小我[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学管理学院,成都610054

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2004年第1期88-96,共9页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70272001);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(79725002).

摘　　要：实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法(DCF)更适合用来分析不确定环境下的投资决策问题,但仅凭实物期权方法不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业战略投资问题进行准确分析和估价.根据是否考虑不完全竞争环境下企业投资决策间的战略互动关系,实物期权方法被分为一般实物期权方法和战略实物期权方法.侧重于战略实物期权方法,对企业技术创新投资的实物期权理论模型及方法进行综述,并指出了对这类问题进一步研究的方向.The real options approach is more suitable to analyze the problems of investment decisions under uncertainty than the traditional discounted cash flow approach (DCF) does. However, the firms' strategic investments under the imperfect competition can't be analyzed and evaluated accurately only by the real option approach. According to whether considering the strategic interactions among firms' decisions under the imperfect competition, this paper divides the real option approach into the general real option approach and the strategic real option approach. Mainly focusing the strategic real option approach, this paper surveys the existent real options theoretical models and approaches to analyze the firms' investments of technology innovations. Finally, recommendations are given for further research.

关 键 词：实物期权 博弈均衡 技术创新 战略投资 企业 

分 类 号：F275.1[经济管理—企业管理] F272.3[经济管理—国民经济]