风险评价中重复操作人误事件概率的定量化  

Quantification of the Probability of Repeatable Human Error Event in Risk Assessment

作　　者：黄祥瑞[1] 沈祖培[1] 何旭洪[1] 高佳[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学,北京100084 [2]北京科技大学,100083

出　　处：《核动力工程》2004年第2期164-167,共4页Nuclear Power Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70271008)

摘　　要：介绍了用于风险评价中重复连续操作人误事件的概率模型和概率的估算方法,推导了多重并联和串联任务时人误事件失效概率计算的常用公式。通过计算实例证明,本模型能较精确地解决重复连续相关操作人误事件的概率计算,并可以应用于计算考虑人误事件时的冗余系统的不可用度。This paper described modeling and quantification of the probability of repeatable sequential human error event in application of risk assessment and induced some usual formula of calculation of human error event for task in serial or in parallel. It was proved by calculation of practical example that this model could solve more accurate calculation of the probability of the dependent repeatable sequential human error event and it could be used for calculation of unavailability including human error event in redundant systems.

关 键 词：重复连续操作 相依失效概率 操作相依系数 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]