邢台地震以来短期和临震预测的探讨和实践  

DISCUSSION ON SHORT-IMPENDING TERM EARTH- QUAKE PREDICTION SINCE XINGTAI EVENT

作　　者：王泽皋[1] 乔子云[1] 边庆凯[1] 张跃刚[1] 何彦英[1] 郭妍[1] 王银芝[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《高原地震》2003年第4期1-17,共17页Plateau Earthquake Research

摘　　要：从邢台地震区以震报震的角度出发,以当地直接前震为端,扩大到海城、唐山大震之前,无论当地或华北广义的活动在时间和空间上的特征性图像,用动态跟踪监视的思路与本文的办法,在长期实践和积累的基础上以现今的认识和提法综合统一归纳为:用"震情三分律"办法以定量规范未来强震的"活动时段";用"对称填补"模式以定量规范未来强震的"活动空间"。认为,以现有各地的测、控水平,对Ms≥6 0级地震前记录到的震兆信息是有可能作出短期或临震预测的。对提出的2种特征性图像的物理意义、岩石压力实验等作了简要的叙述。但因地质构造并非短期内能改变大震前后的继承性活动,故本文概不涉及。From the view of predicting earthquake with earthquake,the temporal and spatial characteristics of seismicity before strong earthquakes,such as Xingtai,Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes,are analyzed.The results show this method can predict the 'active interval'of potential strong earthquakes with 'trichotomy earthquake situation',and predict the 'active space'with 'symmetric filling'.And this may be possible to predict the short-impending earthquakes with Ms≥6.0 according to the precursory anomalies.The physical meaning of the two methods used in the paper is briefly introduced.

关 键 词：短期预测 临震预测 强震活动 震兆信息 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]