上海市区老年人泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤发病趋势分析(1973～1999年)  

Trends Analysis of Common Urologic Neoplasm Incidence of Elderly People in Shanghai, 1973-1999

作　　者：张薇[1] 项永兵[1] 刘振伟[1] 方茹蓉[1] 阮志贤[1] 孙璐[1] 高立峰[1] 金凡[1] 高玉堂[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学肿瘤研究所/上海市肿瘤研究所流行病学研究室,上海200032

出　　处：《癌症》2004年第5期555-558,共4页Chinese Journal of Cancer

摘　　要：背景与目的:国内有关老年恶性肿瘤发病趋势的研究较少,本文分析1973～1999年上海市区老年人泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤的发病趋势。方法:按照国际疾病分类(ICD-9)三位数字进行编码。依据有关年份人口普查资料中的性别、年龄构成,用内插法和外推法估算各年的年龄组平均人口数。用世界标准人口计算每三年合并资料的标化发病率。发病率年均变化百分比用线性回归计算,并用病例数加权。结果:27年间,上海市区老年人群中男性前列腺癌、膀胱癌和肾癌的发病率呈上升趋势,年均变化率分别为6.60%、1.15%和5.30%,女性肾癌发病率迅速上升,年均变化率为4.58%。结论:27年间,上海市区老年男性前列腺癌、肾癌和膀胱癌发病率上升,女性膀胱癌发病率相对稳定。BACKGROUND &OBJECTIVE: Few studies on trend analysis in cancer incidence of the elderly people in China. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in urologic cancer incidence of the elderly people during the period 1973-1999 in Shanghai. METHODS: The registered cancer cases were coded according to the 3 digit rubrics of the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 9). Population estimates were based on periodic censuses, with age and sex specific annual estimates derived by linear inter and extrapolation for the remaining years. The age standardized rates adjusted to the world population were calculated for nine 3 year periods. Annual percent changes in incidence were estimated by means of a linear regression of the respective rates on the mid point of calendar years, weighted by the number of cases. RESULTS: During the 27 year period, cancers of prostate, bladder, and kidney have risen substantially among elderly male residents in Shanghai. The annual percent changes were 6.60%, 1.15%, and 5.30%, respectively. Among the elderly women, the rate of kidney cancer increased rapidly, with the annual percent change of 4.87%. The 75 years and older age group in women had substantial increases in incidence rates of bladder cancer. CONCLUSION: From 1973 to 1999, the incidence rates of the commonly urologic cancers increased substantially among the elderly residents in Shanghai, except for female bladder cancer.

关 键 词：上海市区 老年人 泌尿系统 恶性肿瘤 发病趋势 1973-1999年 

分 类 号：R737.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]