对企业并购价值评估中威斯通模型的质疑  

Some Questions about Weston Model of Evaluation in M&A

作　　者：周琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2004年第1期21-25,共5页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部优秀青年教师资助项目"企业并购协同效应的计量 :模型与方法"

摘　　要：威斯通模型假设“销售收入和总资产与税后营业收入以相同的速度增长” ,但由于其对重要估价参数的预测程序不十分恰当而导致了估价参数的预测结果与该假设相矛盾 ,从而在进行敏感性分析时也未能准确反映企业价值的变化 ;另一方面 ,该模型中超常增长后零增长的自由现金流量公式与其“第n +1年起增长率为零”的假设矛盾 ,高估了企业价值。Weston model supposes that “Income after tax will grow at the same velocity as sales and capital”. Yet due to the incorrectness of the forecast procedure, the forecast results of several significant parameters contradict to the assumption and the change for value can't be calculated properly when making the sensitivity analysis. On the other hand, the model supposes that “There is no growth since n+1 year”, but this disagrees with the DCF formula under the zero growth after supernormal increasing period and it will overestimate the corporation value.

关 键 词：威斯通模型 企业价值 自由现金流量 投资资本利润率 企业并购 估价参数 

分 类 号：F271[经济管理—企业管理]