河流水质未确知风险评价理论模式研究  

Study on Theory and Methodology for Unascertained Risk Analysis of River Water Quality

作　　者：李如忠[1] 钱家忠[1] 汪家权[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院

出　　处：《地理科学》2004年第2期183-187,共5页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40202027);安徽省自然科学基金(03045306);合肥工业大学科学研究发展基金(030701F)资助。

摘　　要：基于河流水文、水力和水质资料信息未确知性的特点,运用未确知数学理论,建立了河流水质模拟预测的未确知数学模型;并提出了河流水质未确知风险、未确知测度概念及其计算模式。由河流水质模拟预测结果,得到下游控制断面污染物浓度分布区间及其相应可信度值,再由未确知测度计算模型确定水质超标风险。实例研究表明,运用未确知数学进行不确定性信息下河流水质模拟与风险评估,理论上是可行的,计算结果是可靠的。这为水质运移扩散规律和风险分析问题的研究提供了一种新方法。The river water environmental system is a system with many uncertainties. The risk assessment quantifying the influence of uncertainties on river water quality have been paied attention to widely. 　　Based on the multi-uncertainty characteristics of hydrologic, hydraulic and river water quality information, such as current velocity, flow rate, contaminant concentration, self-purification rate of the pollutant substance concerned, and so on, the concepts of blind number of water quality parameters are defined by using unascertained mathematics theories. On the basis of it, an unascertained mathematical model to describe the transport and conversion rules of organic pollutants is established. Using the unascertained water quality model, the distribution of contaminant concentration of the reach down the outlet of pollutants and its corresponding faith degree can be determined. According to the calculation results, the risk for contaminant concentration exceeding the standard value can be calculated. In order to realize the task, the assessment model of unascertained risk for water quality concentration exceeding the standard value is established, based on the blind number theory in unascertained mathematics. In the assessment model, the contaminant concentration in river water is treated as a blind number and the risk for contaminant concentration exceeding the standard value is expressed with faith degree. As a case, the models established here are applied to evaluate the risk for organic pollutant concentration(COD) exceeding the standard value in Guohe River at a certain section. The results provide more information and are satisfactory.

关 键 词：未确知信息 未确知数 盲数 未确知测度 主观可信度 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]