基于BFT和CDS的集成供应链避险机制研究  

Analysis of BFT and CDS based Integrated Supply Chain Risk Transfer Mechanism

作　　者：姜继娇[1] 杨乃定[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《中国软科学》2004年第5期135-139,共5页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(03CJY004);航空科学基金项目(03J53074)

摘　　要：本文从决策者的有限理性角度,指出了集成供应链风险管理者的金字塔式心理账户结构;据此,构建了基于BFT和CDS、以多心理账户行为证券组合理论为核心的集成供应链避险模型;因有限理性符合风险管理者实际情景,决定了本研究较传统避险分析更为逼近集成供应链的现实避险决策。To address decision-makers' bounded rationality, a behavioral finance theory (BFT) is introduced in the integrated supply chain (ISC) risk management system. Authors not only describe, under the riddle of Friedman and Savage, the pyramid structure of ISC risk manager's mental accounts, but also explain the empirical abnormity phenomena in ISC. Authors, based on the pyramid structure of mental accounts, have modified the traditional credit default swap (CDS) risk transfer model without risk attitudes. An ISC risk transfer model, with multiple mental accounts as its core, is also established under the behavioral portfolio theory and based on BFT and CDS. As the hypothesis of bounded rationah'ty is well in line with the risk management mentality in practice, the new model has advanced a step closer to reality, as compared with traditional risk transfer analysis approach.

关 键 词：集成供应链 行为金融理论 信用违约互换 避险 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]