中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析  

Long-term Projections of China's Ability to Feed Itself: Technical and Policy Analysis

作　　者：James R.Simpson 李鸥[2] 

机构地区：[1]日本龙谷大学 [2]中国农业大学人文与发展学院,100094

出　　处：《经济研究》2004年第5期76-87,共12页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 。China,with one-fifth of the world's population and rapidly rising incomes,is a country which has naturally been open to speculation about its ability to feed itself over the next several decades.Population will grow from 1.28 billion in 2000,to 1.46 billion in 2020,and 1.49 billion in 2030.Simultaneously,per capita income growth will lead to greater demand for animal and fish products,thus resulting in expanded feedstuffs requirements.The objective of the research reported on was to determine the extent to which China will be able to maintain its current level of being essentially self-sufficient in animal feedstuffs,animal and fish products,and other foods for humans.The research method used is to calculate all animal and fish requirements and availabilities on the basis of metabolizable energy (ME) and crude protein (CP).It is concluded that technicall,despite human population growth and changes in diet,China can continue to meet its energy requirements for animal and fish feedstuffs.However,protein requirements are projected to exceed the base period of 1999—2001 domestically produced availabilities by 13 percent in 2010,32 percent in 2020 and 37 percent in 2030.That gap will have to be met by expanded domestic production,or increased imports.Implications of the projected shortfalls on policy options are discussed later.The projections are based on conservative crop yield increases and per capita consupmtion projections drived from the economy growing at a moderately robust pace.Constraints on China's natural resources are taken into account,but the great potential biotechnology will probably have on crop production worldwide is not factored in.It can be expected there will be years in which imports will likely be needed and other years of surpluses due to climatic variations and other factors.Human consumption of food from sources other than livestock commodities is taken into consideration in the modeling.

关 键 词：居民收入 中国 鱼类产品 家畜产品 消费需求 农业技术 农业发展政策 农产品产量 经济预测 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]