企业破产预警方法及建模  

The Method and Modeling of Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy

作　　者：李瑞波[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072

出　　处：《安徽农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2004年第2期45-48,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural University:SOC.SCI.

摘　　要：最近几年,世界上许多大的公司如Enron和Worldcom相继破产。这些世界著名的企业突然之间宣布倒闭,引起了企业界和学术界对公司破产预警的重视。因此,本文回顾了破产预警模型的发展历程,拟对国际上常用的两类破产预警模型的建模思想和建模方法加以介绍,剖析了各种建模方法的优点和局限性,最后总结了企业破产预警研究的最新进展。In the recent years,the bankruptcies of some famous corporates like Enron and Worldcom have underlined the importance of the prediction of corporate bankruptcy in academia and in industry.Therefore, this paper reviews the development history of bankruptcy prediction models,introduces the principle and method of modeling of two bankruptcy prediction models that often are used widely in the world,analyzes the advantage and disadvantage of them,finally sums up the latest development of research of corporate bankruptcy prediction.

关 键 词：企业破产 预警方法 Z_Score模型 LOGIT模型 多元判别分析 预警模型 建模方法 建模思想 

分 类 号：F271[经济管理—企业管理]