北京市甲型H1N1流感建模与仿真研究  

Modeling and Simulation of Influenza A (H1N1) in Beijing

作　　者：温馨[1] 薛亚奎[1] 夏智强 

机构地区：[1]中北大学理学院,山西太原

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2015年第3期292-298,共7页Advances in Applied Mathematics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11301491);山西省自然科学基金(2015011009)。

摘　　要：根据甲型H1N1流感疫情的传播机理和特点构建数学模型,得到控制疾病流行与否的阈值R0,同时以北京2009年疫情爆发时发布的防控动态报告数据为支撑,对模型进行仿真模拟,模型中各参数意义明确,来源有据,与疫情传播过程密切相关,实现了疫情传播过程的拟合,更精确直观的刻画甲型H1N1流感的发展,对参数敏感性进行分析,从而为防控疫情提供决策和科学意义。According to the mechanism and characteristics of influenza A (HIN1), this essay constructed a mathematical model. Then, the article got a threshold R0 indicating whether the disease had been controlled or not. At the same time, this essay used the prevention data of Beijing in 2009 when the epidemic broke out simulating the model. The parameters of the model, which got sensitivity analysis, are clear, and data source is reliable. The model reflects the process of the epidemic spread, and intuitively describes the development of influenza A (HIN1). Thus, this article is useful in providing decisions for the prevention and control of the epidemic.

关 键 词：甲型H1N1流感 基本再生数 仿真模拟 

分 类 号：R18[医药卫生—流行病学]