GM(1,1)模型在我国研究生教育规模预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1) Model in the Prediction of Graduate Education Scale in China

作　　者：陈显雄 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2021年第9期3169-3177,共9页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：通过选取《中国统计年鉴》2011~2019年我国研究生教育毕业人数、招生人数、在校人数等相关数据,构建GM(1,1)模型对2020~2025年我国研究生教育规模的发展趋势进行预测分析。结果显示,2020~2025年我国研究生教育规模(包括毕业人数、招生人数、在校人数)将保持稳定增长,所建立模型的平均相对误差均小于4%,说明模型拟合效果好,具有较高的预测精度。旨在为有关部门在制定研究生教育发展的相关政策时提供一些较为科学参考依据。By selecting the relevant data such as the number of graduate education graduates, admissions and enrollments in China’s statistical yearbook from 2011 to 2019, a GM(1,1) model is constructed to predict and analyze the development trend of China’s graduate education scale from 2020 to 2025. The results show that the scale of China’s Graduate Education (including the number of graduates, admissions and enrollments) will maintain a stable growth from 2020 to 2025, and the average relative errors of the established models are less than 4%, indicating that the model has good fitting effect and high prediction accuracy. The purpose is to provide some scientific reference for relevant departments in formulating relevant policies for the development of graduate education.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 研究生教育规模 预测 

分 类 号：G64[文化科学—高等教育学]