家庭支持政策对总和生育率的影响研究  

Study of the Impact of Family Support Policies on the Total Fertility Rate

作　　者：程丹丹 唐加山[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学理学院,江苏 南京

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2023年第5期2159-2171,共13页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：生育率是生育行为的统计结果,为了研究家庭支持政策对生育行为的影响以探讨能否通过制定相应政策提高总和生育率的可能性问题,该研究收集了经合组织35个国家2010~2017年的面板数据,采用系统GMM方法量化分析不同家庭支持政策对总和生育率的影响。结果表明:家庭现金补助对生育率起显著正向作用,k-means聚类分析发现,“社会民主模式”下的现金补助方式效果更稳定。然而,结合世界208个国家人均GDP分析显示,在高收入国家群体中,家庭现金补助政策对总和生育率发挥的作用效果小,家庭现金补助金额占GDP的比值每提高1个百分点,总和生育率提高2.1个千分点。另外,家庭实物与服务福利对总和生育率无显著影响。Fertility is the statistical result of fertility behavior. In order to study the impact of family support policies on fertility behavior to explore the possibility of raising the total fertility rate by formulat-ing corresponding policies, this study collected panel data from 35 OECD countries between 2010 and 2017, and quantitatively analyzed the impact of different family support policies on the total fertility rate by using systematic GMM method. The results show that family cash subsidies have a significant positive effect on fertility, and the k-means clustering analysis shows that the effect of cash subsidies in the “social democratic model” is more stable. However, combined with the analysis of per capita GDP of 208 countries in the world, in the group of high-income countries, the effect of family cash subsidy policy on the total fertility rate is small. For every 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of family cash subsidy to GDP, the total fertility rate will increase by 2.1 thousandths. In addition, family benefits in kind and services have no significant impact on the total fertility rate.

关 键 词：系统GMM 家庭支持政策 总和生育率 K-MEANS聚类 社会民主模式 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]