EC模式和T639模式降水预报产品在石家庄市的检验和分析  

Inspection and Analysis of EC Model and T639 Model Precipitation Forecast Products in Shijiazhuang

作　　者：赵煊[1] 李志国 尚可 刘伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄市气象局,河北石家庄 [2]中国科学院地球环境研究所,陕西西安

出　　处：《气候变化研究快报》2018年第6期403-415,共13页Climate Change Research Letters

基　　金：石家庄市气象局面上项目(ky1610).

摘　　要：本文通过对比分析EC和T639两种数值预报模式对不同季节、不同级别降水的预报效果,得出以下结论:两种数值模式各季节晴雨及一般性降水预报正确率均在24小时时效内为最好。T639模式对晴雨及秋季的一般性降水预报较好,而EC模式对冬季一般性降水的预报优于T639模式。EC模式晴雨预报正确率以及一般性降水的预报正确率、漏报率的季节差异较小,而一般性降水空报率季节差异较大;T639模式一般性降水预报漏报率较低且季节差异较小,晴雨预报正确率以及一般性降水的预报正确率、空报率在春季、夏季、秋季三个季节之间的差异较小,而与冬季差异较大。EC模式对春季降水预报较好,而对其他三个季节的各级降水预报正确率整体较低。其中较高的空报率为夏季小雨、中雨以及冬季小雪预报正确率较低的主要原因,而西部高空报率,东部高漏报率使得秋季中雨的预报正确率较低。T639对春季中雨及秋季小雨的预报效果较好,而对其他降水预报效果较差,尤其是冬季小雪,其预报正确率小于10%。This paper compares and analyzes the forecast effect of EC and T639 numerical forecast models on different season and different grade precipitation, and draws the following conclusions. The forecast accuracy of the rain or shine and general rainfall in each season are the best in 24 hours. The T639 model is better for rain or shine and general rainfall in autumn, while EC model is better at general rainfall in winter. The seasonal difference of the forecast accuracy of the rain or shine, and the fore-cast accuracy, missing forecast rate of general rainfall of EC model is small, while the vacancy fore-cast rate of general rainfall is big. The T639 model has a low rate and small seasonal difference of missing forecast rate of general rainfall. Forecast accuracy of the rain or shine, and the forecast accuracy, vacancy forecast rate of general rainfall have a small seasonal difference between the spring, summer and autumn in T639. EC model has a far better prediction of spring precipitation than other three seasons. The high vacancy forecast rate is the main reason of the low forecast accuracy rate of the light and moderate rain in summer and the light snow in winter. The high vacancy forecast rate in the west and the high missing forecast rate in the east which result the low forecast accuracy rate of moderate rain in autumn. T639 has a better forecast effect on moderate rain in spring and light rain in autumn , but it has a worse forecast effect on other precipitation, especially for light snow in winter, which has a forecast accuracy less than 10%.

关 键 词：EC模式 T639模式 降水预报检验 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]