中国蓝筹股的长期股权投资回报  

The Long-Term Investment Return of Chinese Blue-Chip Stocks

作　　者：楚义芳 许源 夏思博 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津 [2]江苏金融租赁股份有限公司,江苏 南京 [3]美国维克森林大学商学院,美国

出　　处：《金融》2019年第6期611-624,共14页Finance

摘　　要：蓝筹股的长期投资回报作为投资收益率的重要标杆,既受到金融市场投资者,也受到实体经济领域投资者的普遍重视。本文以中国沪深300这一蓝筹股指数为样本,首先从回溯的角度,测算了中国蓝筹股的历史投资回报;之后,再从未来现金流的角度,估计了中国蓝筹股的预期股权回报。并在此基础上,将之与美国标普500指数对应的长期股权投资回报作了对比。最后,对目前阶段适用的中国蓝筹股长期股权投资回报值作了讨论。The long-term investment return of blue-chip stocks is a key benchmark rate for both financial market investors and main street investors. This paper probes into the long-term investment re-turn of Chinese blue-chip stocks, which is represented by Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index (CSI 300 Index). CSI 300 Index was published on April 8th, 2005, and started with the base of 1000 points set on Dec. 31, 2004. From the start of 1000 points to the end of 2018, CSI 300 Index has yielded 8.19% annually. At the same time, S&P 500 has a 7.49% annual return. For the last 10 years since the financial crisis, CSI 300 Index has only returned 5.18% annually, but S&P 500 annual return reached as high as 12.98%. To estimate the expected return of CSI 300, we applied the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) with some modifications. According to the calculation of the historical in-vestment return and the estimate of expected return of CSI 300, we conclude that the long-term investment annual return of CSI 300 is at the range of 8% - 10%, but currently, it is at the lower end of the range. So, recently we may take 8% as the benchmark annual return rate for long-term investment of Chinese blue-chip stocks.

关 键 词：蓝筹股 沪深300 历史投资回报 预期股权回报 股权风险溢价 标普500 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]