基于ARIMA模型的我国未来人口的预测  

Prediction of China’s Future Population Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：王瑶 

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学统计与数学学院,云南 昆明

出　　处：《统计学与应用》2022年第6期1392-1400,共9页Statistical and Application

摘　　要：随着中国经济的飞速发展,人们的受教育水平也日益提高,我国生育率持续下降,人口增长速度渐缓。本文通过查阅近统计年鉴近四十年来我国人口总数,建立相关ARIMA (0, 2, 1)模型,对我国未来十年人口做出短期预测,发现我国人口增长速度保持在正常范围之内,并据此提出相关建议。With the rapid development of China’s economy, people’s education level is also increasing, China’s fertility rate continues to decline, and the population growth rate is slowing down. In this paper, by consulting the recent statistical yearbook, the total population of China in the past 40 years, estab-lishing the relevant ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model, and making a short-term forecast of China’s population in the next ten years, we find that China’s population growth rate remains within the normal range, and put forward relevant suggestions accordingly.

关 键 词：人口预测 ARIMA模型 时间序列 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]