外源强迫和初始值在短期气候预测中的作用  

Effects of External Forcing and Initial Condition on Short-Term Climatic Forecast

作　　者：范广洲[1] 李洪权[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072 [2]成都信息工程学院地球环境科学系,四川成都610041

出　　处：《高原气象》2004年第z1期77-79,共3页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放实验室基金课题"青藏高原陆地生态系统气候学效应的数值模拟";四川省学术和技术带头人培养课题"西南地区植被生态系统演变对区域气候变化的可能影响"(1200313);国家自然科学基金重点项目(40233035)共同资助

摘　　要：利用Lorenz系统, 初步研究了外源强迫和初始值在短期气候变化中的作用。结果表明, 外源强迫的大小, 对气候系统的长期行为有着重要的影响。在短期气候预测中, 应该根据外源强迫的大小及其持续时间的长短, 采取不同的短期气候预测方法: 即在大气外源强迫较弱、持续时间短时, 可以只考虑初值的影响; 在大气外源强迫强、持续时间长时, 可不考虑初始条件的影响, 而只考虑外源强迫的作用; 在大气外源较强、持续时间较长时, 必须同时考虑初值和外源的作用。The short-term climate forecast is very important, but the forecasting result is not famous now. This is mainly for the lack of the theory and method of forecasting the short-term climate change. In this paper, the Lorenz system is used to primarily study the influence of the external force and the initial condition on the short-term climate change. The result shows that the external force strength can obviously affect the long-term action of the climate system. When we forecast the short-term climaticchange, we should take different methods accordingto the external force strength and its duration. If the external force is smaller and the duration is shorter, we could only calculate the initial condition effect; if the external force is great and the duration is long, we could only calculate the external force effect; and if the external force is relative great and the duration is relative long, the initial condition effect can′t disappear in a short term. So the external force and initial condition must be all calculated during forecasting short-term climate.

关 键 词：短期气候预测 初始条件 外源强迫 LORENZ系统 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]