利用上市公司公开的财务信息预测未来的销售  

Using the Disclosed Financial Information to Forecast Future Sale

作　　者：陆璇[1] 张岭松[1] 陈小悦 

机构地区：[1]清华大学数学科学系,北京100084 [2]国家会计学院,北京100084

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2003年第1期44-50,共7页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：清华大学基础研究基金资助;基金批准号JC2 0 0 0 4 9

摘　　要：销售收入与赢利直接相关 ,而且相对于赢余数据的披露更加客观。所以销售预测不仅可以对公司的盈利预测提供很好的补充 ,本身也是预测公司未来业绩的一个重要指标。本文采用横截面上的线性回归模型和贝叶斯动态线性模型等统计方法 ,对A股市场上市公司年度财务报告进行分析 ,发现财务报告中所披露的公司财务及经营的数据中包含有关于其未来销售变动的信息。进一步比较各种方法的预测效果 ,发现贝叶斯动态线性预测模型的预测效果更好 ,值得推荐。Income from sales relates directly to profit and is more objective to the disclosure of surplus data, and, therefore, not only may sale forecasting provide good complement for a company's profit forecasting, but also itself is an important index of forecasting a company's future performance. In this paper such statistical methods as the lineal regression model in cross section, Bayesian dynamically lineal model, etc. are used to make a marketary analysis on the annual financial report of stock A listed companies, finding that the information about the future sales variation is included in the company's financial and operational data disclosed in the report. The further comparison among the results of several forecasting methods makes it worth recommending the Bayesian dynamically lineal forecasting model.

关 键 词：销售预测 线性回归模型 Bayes动态线性模型 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]