基于ARIMA模型的食用菌价格预测分析——以江苏省杏鲍菇为例  

Edible Fungus Price Forecast Analysis Based On The ARIMA Model:To Boris Apricot Mushroom in Jiangsu Province as an Example

作　　者：刘晓庆[1] 张宇萌[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2012年第2期298-300,共3页Ecological Economy

基　　金：2011年浙江省软科学研究计划项目"浙江省休闲农业发展的科技支撑体系研究"(2011C35014)

摘　　要：在分析自回归移动平均模型特点的基础上,建立了食用菌价格预测模型。充分发挥ARIMA时间序列模型可以根据研究指标从过去到现在的演变过程找出定量演变规律,并依据其进行预测的优势,对食用菌市场价格进行预测分析。通过对江苏省杏鲍菇价格样本序列的实证分析表明,该模型短期预测的精确度较高,从而证明了ARIMA模型用于食用菌价格预测的有效性,解决困扰农民的盲目生产和销售问题。Based on the analysis of the regression moving average characteristics,model is established on the basis of price prediction model of edible fungi.The basic idea is to give full play to the ARIMA model can according to the time sequence index from the past and present of the evolution process of quantitative evolution rule out,and on the basis of the forecast and the advantages of the market prices of edible fungi forecast analysis.Through the apricot bao mushroom in Jiangsu Province price sample series of empirical analysis shows that the model to the accuracy of the short-term forecast higher,so as to prove the ARIMA model used to predict the price of edible fungi validity,and solve the trouble of the production and sale of farmers blindly.

关 键 词：食用菌 价格 预测 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F323.7F326.13