北京市手足口病的流行趋势预测  

Prediction about the Epidemic Trend of HFMD in Beijing

作　　者：崔景安[1] 叶萌[1] 宋国华[1] 张艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学,北京100044

出　　处：《生物数学学报》2014年第1期131-135,共5页Journal of Biomathematics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目号:11371048;11071011);北京市属高等学校人才强教计划资助项目(项目号:201107123)

摘　　要：根据手足口病具有潜伏期的特征,提出了手足口病的SEIR模型框图,并据此建立微分方程模型.通过北京市近年来手足口病疫情周报数据,对参数进行估计并计算基本再生数,预测北京市2014年手足口病的流行趋势,对北京市手足口病的预防控制提供参考.Based on the character of HTMD which has a latency period,the SEIR model diagram about HTMD is proposed,furthermore,the differential equation model is built.According to the weekly report of epidemic diseases in Beijing recent years,the related coefficients are estimated,and the basic reproduction number is obtained,which can predict the epidemic trend of HFMD in 2014,moreover,provide the reference for medical departments to prevent and control HFMD in Beijing.

关 键 词：手足口病 SEIR模型 基本再生数 数值模拟 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]