基于GIS可达性模型的公交出行预测  

Predicting Bus Trip Generation with GIS-based Accessibility Model

作　　者：黄正东[1,2] 丁寅[1] 张莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学城市设计学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学数字城市研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2009年第S1期137-141,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70671076);国家高技术研究发展计划(八六三计划)资助项目(2007AA11Z207)

摘　　要：以基于距离衰减理论的可达性模型为基础,运用GIS栅格数据分析方法,探讨了公交出行预测的新方法。主要过程包括社会经济活动的空间分解、可达性模型参数确定及其度量。以武汉市作为实例进行了公交出行需求的分布预测研究,并基于实际调查对结果进行了验证。结果表明,基于GIS的可达性模型对公交出行发生预测具有宏观意义,但在微观层面存在一定的变化。可达性模型不能反映公交站点的换乘情况,而实地观测数据也不能将换乘量剥离,导致一些站点的预测精度偏低。更为重要的是,城市社会经济活动的密度分布也会带来公交出行规律的变化,需要针对不同的区域分别校核模型参数。Based on the distance-attenuation-theory-based accessibility model,a bus trip generation forecast was explored by using GIS raster data structure and spatial analysis.Major issues in the approach include spatial disaggregation of socio-economic activities as well as identification and measurement of parameters for the accessibility model.The study was based on Wuhan City and the results were verified with field survey data.It is discovered that the accessibility model is valuable to forecast bus trip generation at the aggregate macro level,but there also exist large variations in term of precision at the micro level.In detail,the accessibility model cannot predict the amount of transfers,and meanwhile,the field survey cannot extract the amount of transfers.This situation makes the prediction less reliable.A more challenging issue is that variation of bus trip generation occurs due to socio-economic density distribution,thus accessibility models need to be calibrated accordingly.

关 键 词：智能运输系统 公交需求预测 可达性模型 公交站点 GIS 

分 类 号：U495[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U491.17[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]