预测的混沌范式  

Chaos Paradigms of Forecasting

作　　者：刘洪[1] 郭志勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院

出　　处：《系统科学学报》1998年第4期31-35,39,共6页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目.项目编号:79700008

摘　　要：混沌理论对于自然界和社会生活中的现象有着不同于传统科学的思想,关于事物的未来及其预测也有着不同于传统预测学的概念、假定和方法.总结了预测的旧范式,阐述了混沌理论的基本未来观和关于预测对象的假定,提出它们对于发展预测的建模原理与方法的意义.Chaos is newly developed sicence about nonlinear systems and complicated phenomena, and has paradigms that are different from traditional science. As to forecasting or predicting, chaos also has itself concepts,presumes and methodologies. The authors summarized old paradigms of forecasting,expounded on chaos paradigms of forecasting,and pointed out their implications to modelling of forecasting.

关 键 词：预测 范式转换 混沌理论 

分 类 号：O415.5[理学—理论物理]