Risk evaluation of natural disasters based on connection function  

作　　者：Zhengwei Pan Juliang Jin Li Liu Xiaowei Liu 

机构地区：[1]School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Anhui Xinhua University [2]School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology [3]School of Environment,Beijing Normal University

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》2013年第2期118-124,共7页中国人口·资源与环境（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51079037);Opening Foundation of Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration(LPM2011002);Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(No.1208085ME75)

摘　　要：There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard. The set pair analysis(SPA) deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.

关 键 词：set PAIR analysis CONNECTION FUNCTION natural DISASTER risk level system COMPREHENSIVE evaluation 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]