灰参数GM(1,1)模型及其在电力负荷预测中的应用  

GM(1,1)model with grey parameter and its application to power load forecasting

作　　者：王大成[1] 程浩忠[2] 奚珣[3] 朱杰[3] 张涌[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海市电力公司青浦供电分公司,上海201700 [2]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200030 [3]上海市电力公司浦东供电分公司,上海200122

出　　处：《华东电力》2004年第8期1-3,6,共4页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50177017);高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖资助项目

摘　　要：传统的GM(1,1)模型在参数a的绝对值较小的情况下近期负荷预测精度较高,远期负荷预测往往误差较大,这一定程度上是由于参数a在整个预测过程中保持不变而造成的。本文将参数a看作是具有灰色特性的灰参数,提出了灰参数GM(1,1)模型,并将该模型运用于中长期电力负荷预测的实例中,取得了较好的结果。When the absolute value of the parameter α is relatively small the conventional GM(1,1) model is accurate in short-term load forecasting but has more errors in long-term load forecasting.To some degree this is because that the parameter α remains unchanged in the whole process of forecasting.The parameter α was considered as a grey parameter with grey characteristic in the paper and the GM(1,1) model with grey parameter was put forward to be applied in a long-term power load forecasting example.The result turns out well as expected.

关 键 词：电力系统 灰色系统 灰参数 负荷预测 等维新息技术 中长期负荷预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]