长江河口航道拦门沙冲淤变化的数学模拟和预测  

MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF THE NAVIGABLE CHANNEL-BAR OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

作　　者：朱慧芳[1] 周纪芗[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学,上海200062

出　　处：《海洋与湖沼》1993年第3期294-303,共10页Oceanologia Et Limnologia Sinica

基　　金：国家教委博士点基金

摘　　要：本文选用1975—1978年长江口南槽逐月水下地形图以及相应的大通站的流量和含沙量,中浚、横沙和高桥等站的潮位资料,应用数理统计理论和方法,对长江口南槽航道拦门沙的冲淤变化进行数学模拟。结果表明,多元回归数学模式能够客观地反映拦门沙变化的内在规律。且该模式的拟合计算值与实测值基本相符。因此所建模式可以预测三峡工程和上游调水后,因水沙改变而引起的拦门沙的变化趋势。The Changjiang River Estuary is an estuary of mesotidal type with abundant discharge and sediment supply. Downward from Xuliujing, the channelized flow is characterized by a regular triple-order bifurcation, emptying into the sea through four outlets: the North Branch, the North Passage, the North Channel and the South Channel. The North Branch is not used for navigation now. As to the North Passage and the North and South Channels, there are bars at theirmouths limiting the navigation depth to about 6.0m. For a long time, the South Channel is chosen as the navigable channel of the Changjiang River Estuary.The bar of the South Channel is the largest one in the Changjiang River Estuary. It is characterized by its long shoal, low gradient and complex variability. The height changes of navigable channel-bar are regarded as a stochastic process which is affected by many factors. A lot of simulative computations have been made by using various theories and methods of mathematical statistics. Multiple linear regression model founded at last, not only objectively reflects the nature and inner law of navigable channel-bar, but also confirms the mathematics model is correct and reliable according to the synthetical analysis of significance of regression equation, multiple correlation coefficient and estimation of standard deviation, etc.Using the mathematics model, the fitted computation is made. It indicates that the fitted values conform to observed data. So the mathematics model can predict the changing tendency of navigable channel-bar.

关 键 词：河口 拦门沙 多元回归 数学模拟 

分 类 号：TV148.1[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]