降雨型滑坡预报新方法  

NEW METHOD OF PREDICTING RAINFALL-INDUCED LANDSLIDES

作　　者：丁继新[1] 尚彦军[1] 杨志法[1] 张路青[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2004年第21期3738-3743,共6页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(2002CB4127010)资助课题。

摘　　要：详细研究了三峡地区部分县市的滑坡和降雨历史资料,从滑坡与降雨量、暴雨以及降雨时间 3 个不同角度的关系分析了降雨与降雨型滑坡的关系。在此基础上,提出了降雨因子的概念。同时,还提出了一种预报降雨型滑坡的新方法,定量化地描述了降雨型滑坡的易发程度。按照一定的标准,对每种降雨分因子进行分级,通过多因子叠合分析来研究降雨因子与降雨型滑坡之间的关系,并据此准确地预报滑坡的易发程度。通过将这种滑坡预报新方法应用于三峡的万县地区,证明了它可以比较准确地确定滑坡发生的时间。这种滑坡预报方法将为根据历史降雨和滑坡资料来预测降雨型滑坡奠定良好基础。Historical data of landslides and rainfall of some counties and cities in the Three Gorges area are investigated in detail, and the relationship between rainfall and rainfall-induced landslides is analyzed from three different points of view, rainfall, rainstorm and rainfall duration. The conception of rainfall-factor is suggested thereafter. At the same time, a new method of predicting rainfall-induced landslides is proposed to depict the probability of rainfall-induced landslides quantitatively. Every rainfall-sub-factor is graded according to some criteria, and then the relationship between rainfall-factor and rainfall-induced landslides is studied. It is proved that this new method of landslide prediction can predict the occurrence time of landslides with higher precision through applying it to Wanxian, a city in the Three Gorges area. This method of landslides prediction would lay a solid foundation for predicting rainfall-induced landslide according to historical data of rainfall and landslides.

关 键 词：雨型 滑坡预报 降雨量 易发程度 暴雨 叠合 历史资料 三峡地区 基础 

分 类 号：O157.5[理学—数学] P426.62[理学—基础数学]