低纬和中高纬度火山爆发与我国旱涝的联系  

A Comparative Analysis of Effect of Volcanic Eruptions at Low and Mid-High Latitudes on Drought/Flood in China

作　　者：刘永强[1] 李月洪[1] 贾朋群[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》1993年第11期3-7,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家气象局"八五"重点课题<短期气候预测的理论和预测方法的研究>

摘　　要：根据500年旱涝等级资料,采用时序迭加方法,分析了低纬和中高纬火山爆发对我国降水的影响。此外,还对1600—1979年南方涛动指数(SOI)的变化进行了类似的分析。结果表明,低纬和中高纬火山爆发后全国旱涝分布型和部分地区降水变化趋势有很大差异。爆发当年华北就可能明显变旱,而次年长江流域才出现明显的降水异常。计算还表明,1991年皮纳图博火山及云仙岳火山爆发与江淮特大洪涝有直接联系的可能性不大。Superposed-epoch analyses of drought/flood index in China for the past 500 years show substantial differences in spatial pattern and temporal evolution of the drought/flood with respect to low and mid-high volcanic eruptions. Drought events might appear more frequently in the key years (that is, eruption years)in North China,while significant rainfall anomalies might ocuur with great probability only in the following years. Finally,it is inferred that there would not be direct . ralationships between both eruptions of Pinatuebo in the Philippines and Unzendake in Japan and the extraoridinarily catastrophic flood in Changjiang-Huai river valley in summer of 1991.

关 键 词：火山爆发 旱涝 SOI 纬度 

分 类 号：P426.67[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]